The Battles That Will Win The War

It feels as though England have been playing cricket almost constantly this year. In fact, England have played 45 days worth of competitive cricket this year, or in more relatable terms, almost a quarter of the year so far. All this cricket however, whether it be the intense and nerve-wracking Champion’s Trophy final or the instantly forgettable recent T20 series against New Zealand, has just been one enormous aperitif to the mouth-watering bumper main course that is the Ashes. As with any modern Ashes series, the build-up started pretty much as soon as the previous series finished, and the recent climax to the build-up has been characterised by selection dilemmas, off-the-field incidents and bold predictions by pundits from both sides. All these will pale into relative insignificance once the first ball in bowled tomorrow however, and for the next seven weeks, the final destination of that most coveted of urns will be decided by the actualities of the cricket. How leather impacts willow. Whether two hands can grasp a crucial catch. A momentary lapse in a batsman’s concentration. Here, I outline what I believe to be the three key battles that will decide the Ashes.

1. Alastair Cook v Mitchell Starc

No one would dream of questioning Alastair Cook’s batting pedigree. Indeed, the England captain is on the cusp of graduating from the very good to the great in the pantheon of English batters. He is approaching both thirty Test hundreds and a century of Test caps at a canter, and the ascension to the captaincy appears to have further galvanised his batting. However, and this may prove to be an important however, he does have a weakness against left arm seam that is no longer just perceived, but apparent and verifiable. It is a trait that, like many others, he has in common with his predecessor and former opening partner Andrew Strauss. I must admit I find it bizarre that such a weakness could exist, given they are both left handers. Kevin Pietersen is notoriously weak against left arm spin, a vulnerability that is understandable from a technical point of view given that the ball is turning away from his bat. The left arm seam to left handed batter configuration is surely analogous to a right arm seam to right handed batter configuration, undoubtedly the most common duel seen in cricket outside the subcontinent. If a right handed opener had a weakness to right arm seam, well, it’s fairly obvious he wouldn’t be around for long. Why then, is Cook frail against the mirror image of this often seen combination? It may be that left armers are comparatively rare so exposure to, and thus practice against them is reduced, but I believe the root cause of Cook’s flaw is technical. His tendency to plant the front foot early and play around the pad that took him to the verge of being dropped three years ago has been, if not totally ironed out, at least tempered substantially. The relics of this however, are brought into sharp relief against left armers, given the difference in both angle and release point.
The young, exciting and talented Trent Boult got him in both innings at the Lord’s Test earlier in the summer, as well as twice in the series in New Zealand. Neil Wagner, a less heralded left arm quick, also got him twice in that same series. Australia have a left armer with an even greater reputation than Boult in Mitchell Starc. I personally have been more impressed by Boult given his greater control and wider skillset. It would be fair to say that Starc has an extra yard of pace and more of the ‘X-Factor’ than his Kiwi counterpart however. I fully expect him to share the new ball, and for the proactive captaincy of Michael Clarke to come to the for as he explicitly targets the England captain with his unpredictable but undoubtedly dangerous young left armer. Graeme Swann spoke recently about ‘cutting the head off the serpent’ with regards to Clarke. If Clarke and Starc can exploit this flaw to remove the heavy-scoring head of the English serpent, it will go a long way towards reducing England to a manageable total.

2. Michael Clarke v Graeme Swann

If there is one player on either side that is most ‘up’ for this series, then it is Graeme Swann. The off-spinner has not been backward in coming forward about his excitement about the Ashes and his fervent desire to win them. Although he hasn’t said it in so many words, it is clear to any observer that he wishes to create a ‘legacy’ this year through his own personal performances, as well as the team’s. At 34, and with the injury-ridden year he has had, it is obvious that he is, if not part way through, at least entering the autumn of his career. He is, however, well placed to have himself a glorious Indian summer. An expected prolonged period of very dry weather coupled with the plethora of left-handed batters that he so enjoys in the Australian lineup will have Swann licking his lips. Indeed it is hardly surprising he is so riddled with excitement for the summer ahead. There may well be a nasty fly in his ointment however, in the shape of Michael Clarke. Not only is he a dastardly right hander, but he is also an extremely fine player of spin bowling, of all kinds. Swann may well chew up and spit out the left handers at the other end, but a Clarke who has got himself in against the seamers will be a very different proposition. Now given the conditions and circumstances Swann will be expected to be more attacking in this series, in contrast to the holding role he normally plays in England, and it is likely that Cook will be inclined to generally set more aggressive fields accordingly. This, along with the fact that Clarke doesn’t really have an obvious weakness against spin, could prove problematic for Swann. The automatic reaction would be to attempt to tie Clarke up and restrict his scoring to try and lure him into a rash shot or a lapse in concentration. This will be easier said than done for three reasons. Firstly, Clarke’s nimble footwork and confidence against spin allow him to manufacture a reasonable amount of runs against defensive fields. Secondly, the increased expectation put on his shoulders since both becoming captain and losing Ricky Ponting and Michael Hussey from the batting unit has made him a more responsible and focused player than he was in either of the last two Ashes series. Finally, given the abundance of left handers in the Australian lineup, it is more than likely that there will be one at the other end from Clarke and that Swann will be bowling aggressively to whomever it is. Switching from an attacking to a containing line, field and mentality often plays havoc with a bowler’s execution of his skills. No, it is fair to say that Clarke will be the most likely spoiler of Swann’s planned party, and the off-spinner will have to be at his most wily if he is to stop him.

3. Kevin Pietersen v Everyone

A self-confessed big match player, and the owner of the most ‘X-Factorness’ on either side, the performance of Kevin Pietersen will have a huge bearing on the outcome of the series. It is no secret that, like Swann, Pietersen is pumped for the Ashes. Indeed, the former alluded to just how excited the latter his in his recent Sun column. Like his captain, Pietersen is another England player on the verge of greatness. There are many who would claim that he is already there, but I prefer to leave him on greatness’ doorstep because, as was said on the most recent episode of ESPNCricinfo’s Switch Hit podcast, Pietersen is a better player when he has something to prove. There is no doubt in my mind that he is the most talented and exciting batter on the planet at the minute. You can throw names like Jayawardene, Amla and Kohli into the mix, along with the two captains contesting the Ashes this year, but ask me whether I would rather see each of this score a hundred, or watch a single Pietersen century and I would pick the latter every time. When that talent manifests itself, he is virtually unstoppable and his only enemy is himself.
What, or rather who, then stands in the way of that special talent coming to the fore? Well, it is well documented that, for all their failings, Australia have a strong and potentially potent bowling attack. I have already sang the praises of Starc, but James Pattinson is perhaps even more impressive, and the backup seamers are competent too. Pattinson, though young, has ego and the traditional aggressive streak that has often typified great Australian teams of the past, and is perhaps missing from some of his teammates. The thought of a pumped-up Pattinson bowling to Pietersen is a mouth-watering one, as the latter will not take kindly to the sight of an ego that could potentially threaten his own and will consequently attempt to take the former down a peg or too in his own brutal way. If he manages, the results will be catastrophic for Australia but, as is often the case, one’s greatest strength is also one’s greatest weakness. If Pietersen allows his ego to run away with him, England’s key game-changing weapon will be nullified.
A couple of perceived irresponsible Pietersen dismissals will also refuel criticism aimed at his from off the field. Whilst I said in the introduction that on field events are ultimately where the Ashes will be decided, Pietersen’s game often transcends the field of play, meaning his performance is capable of being affected from outside. Also, regardless of the claimed successful ‘reintegration’ and the constant stream of Pietersen-friendly soundbites that emanate from the England camp, we would be foolish to imagine all the water is totally under the bridge. It may not be as fragile as it was this time last year, but Pietersen’s position in the dressing room, and how it changes throughout the summer, will have a huge impact on his performance, and England’s performance as a whole