Before the Lord Mayor's show?

England Test matches in May tend to go down two routes. Either the weather plays the villainous lead and the match tends to peter out into a dull rain-affected draw, or the weather plays an intriguing yet subtle hand by providing juicy pitches that bowlers relish and that produce absorbing, thrilling and ultimately competitive cricket, where batters are forced to score some proper runs and the course of the match can alter rapidly, as we witnessed in 2011 where a ruthless England attack produced a sparkling performance on the final day to rout a rabbit-in-the-headlights-esque Sri Lanka at Cardiff. Unfortunately given the British weather currently, we may be in for the former route over the next five days, but we can live in hope. If we do get a series where play is possible on most days however, it could prove to be a fascinating one.
Another curse that often affects early season Test matches is that they tend to get overlooked by public and press alike. Usually the series is shorted and against a supposedly lesser team. Add the A-word in and you could be forgiven for realising this series is actually taking place. But it is. And not only should it throw up questions in its own right, but answer some that have already been asked. Let us first consider the tourists.
New Zealand are a team that are perennially said to be greater than the sum of their parts, a moniker that is not without justification. Their strongest part at the moment is undoubtedly their fast bowling attack and it is for this reason that they will be relishing a series that could well be played on cooperative wickets. Trent Boult is clearly the current pack leader. Whilst Tim Southee is more experienced and arguably more skillful, Boult holds the advantages of being a shade quicker, more of an unknown quantity and, most crucially, a left-armer. It is that last parameter that could give him the edge over England's top order, particularly Alastair Cook. Like many left-handers paradoxically have had, he has had not inconsiderable problems with left-armers in the past and, whilst we have got used to him scoring runs for fun, he is only human (I think) and, in good old-fashioned England fan style, I say he is due a lean series. The backup seamers are useful too. In New Zealand, the Barmy Army were charmed first by Neil Wagner's surname, then by his bustling, whole-hearted approach to bowling. The general consensus is that he is ahead of Doug Bracewell for the third paceman's spot but, having watched a bit of Bracewell bowling against South Africa, I would be tempted to go with a four man pace attack and leave out Bruce Martin. It would be slightly harsh on Martin, who outbowled his opposite number Monty Panesar in the recent series, but he was poor on the final day in Auckland and besides, a move like picking a four man pace attack would be more in keeping with Brendon McCullum's progressive style of captaincy. I feel Bracewell would offer as much with the bat as Martin and, to cap it off, New Zealand's number three and part time offspinner Kane Williamson actually has more Test wickets at a lower average than Martin.
Williamson neatly brings me to the batting, which is a trickier puzzle to solve. They are a team that has been rolled for double figure scores by quality pace attacks recently, and it is not too much to imagine that something similar could happen here. Indeed, in a two-match, possibly to be rain-affected series, one innings where the batting implodes could be the difference between an impressive series drawn and a disappointing series lost. Six months ago, the New Zealand selectors will not have had Peter Fulton in their provisional starting XI for this Test match, but his twin hundreds in Auckland have given the thirty four year old opener the chance to have a decent crack of the whip. Nevertheless, we can't ignore the fact he has an ugly stance and technique that leads to an unconvincing uncertainty around off stump. Against an England attack at home, hungry for some personal revenge, with Duke ball in hand and in swinging conditions, you have to expect that he will come a cropper. His opening partner, Hamish

Rutherford, on the other hand, has acquitted himself well with English conditions, and the signs are that he could be the key player for New Zealand. He scores his runs quickly, and in potentially low scoring matches, quick runs take on greater significance, a fact true of the Black Caps captain. His bullish and inventive captaincy will be less important in conditions best exploited by doing the basics right. His bullish and inventive attitude however, will be of paramount importance. In a young team with few 'characters' he will need to be the main galvanising force on the field. That is not to discount the contribution Ross Taylor will no doubt make to that area, but he will know that the best way he can assert himself on the team is by scoring big runs. He does have valuable experience of doing this in England but whether he does this or not I feel largely depends on the England bowlers. If they bowl short on these wickets, he will be savage. If they bowl full well, who knows. The rest of the batting order comprises of three players (Williamson, Dean Brownlie and wicketkeeper BJ Watling) who have each played fighting Test innings showing a mental maturity beyond their experience, but still possess technical flaws that I fear will be realised on this tour. It could be that I am proved wrong, but I honestly can't envisage more than one of them making a sizeable contribution.
My New Zealand starting XI for tomorrow would therefore be:
Peter Fulton
Hamish Rutherford
Kane Williamson
Ross Taylor
Dean Brownlie
Brendon McCullum (c)
BJ Watling (wk)
Tim Southee
Doug Bracewell
Neil Wagner
Trent Boult


Now I turn my attention to England. As a team, as a batting unit, as a bowling group and as other cliches as well, they will be confident. All teams are more confident when at home, but England more than most. The bowlers in particular will be chomping at the bit to get out in the middle. In New Zealand their initial confidence turned to frustration through puzzlement and annoyance , and ended up somewhere near grumpiness. None more so than for James

Anderson. The Lancashire quick is deadly at home, more because he has a Duke ball rather than because of the pitches, and will be keen to return his record against New Zealand to its previous excellence, and pass 300 Test wickets along the way. I am backing him to shine in this series, and at Headingley he has a good chance to go one better than his previous best Test figures.
His new ball partner will be, and should be, Stuart Broad. Broad retains his double-edged knack of taking wickets in clusters. This, allied to his fiery, sometimes childish, temper leads observers to periodically call for his head. England will definitely have him penciled in as a key player over this bumper summer of cricket though. His confidence should be high, and he will see this series as an opportunity to pick up some wickets and reaffirm his status in the eyes of the public as England's second best paceman.
The last two bowling spots (I think we all can accept that England will continue to pick six batters for the foreseeable future) will be filled by a combination of Graeme Swann, Tim Bresnan and Steven Finn. Whilst I have said I would be an advocate of a four man New Zealand attack, I believe we can all perish any thought of Swann not playing. They missed each of his three facets terribly in New Zealand and, whilst his form for Notts hasn't been exactly sparkling, indications are that his elbow isn't proving detrimental to his game as it did last year. Although the pitches may not be particularly conducive to spin, but nevertheless one of the key cogs in this remarkably successful England team will return, and they will be more dangerous for it.
That leaves Bresnan and Finn for the final spot and as to who it will be, well my guess is as good as yours. Finn is 'the man in possession' but has taken only seven wickets in his three first class matches for Middlesex this season, at an average approaching forty. Not exactly great

form. He is also reportedly going back to his longer run up, a sign that he himself is not comfortable with his game. Bresnan, on the other hand, has shown solid if unspectacular form for Yorkshire so far, taking thirteen wickets at twenty seven in his three matches and his return may shake up an England attack that was starting to look flat in New Zealand. The selectors will bear in mind that his is also returning from injury, and they may not want to risk him and Swann coming back in the same match. Like I said, I believe it is too close to call but secretly hope that Finn gets the nod. After all, that would mean Bresnan would return to the Yorkshire team currently playing Warwickshire. Although it appears they may not need him!
The trio of Cook, Trott and Bell are a reassuring presence in the England batting lineup and, whilst I stated that Cook may struggle against Boult, the other two are in good form for their county. In fact, they are being sorely missed at the moment (yes, I couldn't resist mentioning it again)! In all seriousness, I am backing them both to score runs. The same goes for Nick Compton. The Somerset opener has had to wait seven Tests before making his home debut and will be extremely confident going into it. Whilst his first two Test hundreds will still be fresh in his mind, mentally he will be casting his mind back to early last season, where he was scoring runs for fun in tricky conditions. He may well have to do something similar tomorrow morning. He knows now that he can do it and that he 'belongs'. He needs to retain the intensity that served him so well in unfamiliar Indian conditions, but will naturally relax playing on a familiar Lord's pitch. I think his game will be better for it.
There isn't much to say about Matt Prior to be honest, other than I'm glad he exists. Sandwiched between England's recently named player of the year and the top four, however, lies the most fascinating area of the team. The two Yorkshire youngsters, Joe Root and Jonny Bairstow, will occupy places five and six, with myriad subplots encircling them. The first thing to say is that the pair of them are in superb form. Joe Root, especially, will have never batted better. Three scores of 179 or more, along with a scarcely noticeable second ball duck, in his last four games mean his confidence will be higher going into this Test than any of his previous four. Bairstow meanwhile, looks to be getting back to somewhere approaching his free-flowing best. The second important point is that the pair of them like batting together. A sizeable partnership against the New Zealanders and an enormous one against Derbyshire mean that we can curb our panic should England find themselves at 40-4 at some point with the two rookies at the crease. The bigger picture with regards to this of course concerns the Ashes (oh no I've said it!). Assuming Kevin Pietersen returns, which is likely, from some angles Root and Bairstow could be seen as engaging in a winner takes all shoot-out for that number six spot. Matters would be complicated if both (or neither) score runs though, with other possible scenarios presenting themselves. I won't go into them now as it mainly concerns the Ashes. Let it just be said that even the most Pimms-sodden MCC members will be watching the two Yorkshiremen at the crease intently.

My England starting XI for tomorrow would therefore be:
Alastair Cook (c)
Nick Compton
Jonathan Trott
Ian Bell
Joe Root
Jonny Bairstow
Matt Prior (wk)
Stuart Broad
Graeme Swann
Steven Finn
James Anderson